Race Predictions

 

The other day I was texting back and forth with a friend of mine. He had just run a 10K race and won his age group. He made the standard comment “I started out way to fast” which I will cover later but one comment really struck me. He said “when I heard the split at 5K of 19:20 ish I thought I was running slow. The race predictor on my watch says I should be able to run 6:04 pace and I ran 6:19 pace” 

The above picture is from my Stryd foot pod. These race calculations are based on all of my recent training. To my knowledge it is basing these numbers off my critical power of 264 watts or 3.99 watts per KG. My 1 mile run would have to be run above that number to hit the time listed. My 5K would have to be run at that power for the entire 5K and so on down the road. 

Notes about Me

1. The 3.99 watts per KG is kind of high. It is based on me being at race weight of 146. I am not there right now. The question would be should I go down the slippery slope of trying to get to race weight?
2. Every predicted time on that list would be a new PR. I am fairly confident I could train specifically for one of those races (I have never trained specifically for any one of those events) and maybe I can set a new PR but those times I am not sure. 
3. I don`t ever pay attention to these numbers. In fact I didn`t even know they were there until my buddy talked about his GPS Watch. 

My reply back to him was in three parts. 

1. There is no way you could accurately track your mile splits on that course using GPS, you would have to use a Footpod to get more accuracy. The course he ran is on a bike path around a lake. The path follows the contours of the lake which almost looks like a leaf off an oak tree. Many virtual u turns and lots of short ups and downs. GPS would struggle to keep up. 
2. Everything would have to be perfect on the day for you to hit that pace. You probably played Pickle Ball last night and there is a couple seconds per mile right there. I am not suggesting you don`t play pickle ball. 
3. Starting too fast is a chronic problem of yours. You need to train that into yourself. Years ago I coached a friend to a PR in the marathon and a Boston BQ. She told me about her tendency to start fast. Once a week I had her do a medium length run 7 - 10 miles on an out and back trail. I have her a split at the turnaround and then a split for the finish. As we got closer to the event the run got a bit longer and the differential got a bit larger. So say we stated with 30 minutes out and 28 minutes back. Maybe we ended with 45 minutes out and 40 minutes back. The goal was to go out easy enough to be able to run back comfortably faster. She negative split her marathon and had a great race.